Sunday, August 25, 2024

Nuclear Brinkmanship: NATO’s Strategy in Ukraine War


The US military brass, through NATO’s integrated military command, exercises absolute control over Ukraine’s theater of proxy war. The Zelensky regime and its military commanders are merely expendable pawns beholden to military strategy as devised by master strategists of the Pentagon.

The foremost objective of the US military brass in Ukraine’s proxy war is to degrade Russia’s military capabilities, which alongside China, is deemed an existential threat to US security interests, for which Ukrainian troops and conscripts are being sacrificed as cannon fodder.

Although China, too, matches the conventional warfare capabilities of the Cold War-era arch-rivals, its relatively modest nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, long-range ballistic missile program, aren’t in the same “super power league” yet.

China could increase its nuclear stockpile to 1,500 by 2035, according to State Dept. report, but current estimates put China’s arsenal at about 500 warheads. In comparison, the US has 5,748 warheads, whereas Russia has 5,580 warheads. Russia has 1,549 nuclear warheads that are deployed, while the US has deployed 1,419. Because the New START treaty caps the deployment of warheads at 1,550.

Besides being the world’s leading nuclear power alongside the US, Russia also boasts cutting-edge delivery mechanisms that are enough to give goosebumps to envious adversaries plotting to degrade the Eurasian behemoth’s military capabilities.

Pioneering the hypersonic missile technology that can evade the most advanced missile defense systems, Russia has recently unveiled an array of state-of-the-art armaments that can make any military technology aficionado become an avid admirer of Russia’s techno-scientific expertise.

The Kinzhal, or The Dagger, is an air-launched ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers. Currently launched from a MiG-31 fighter, the missile accelerates to speeds between Mach 4 and Mach 10 while performing evasive maneuvers to circumvent air and missile defenses.

The Tsirkon, or Zircon, is a ship-launched hypersonic cruise missile capable of reaching Mach 9 speed to strike ground or naval targets at a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers. The Iskander is a mobile short-range ballistic missile system, traveling at a terminal hypersonic speed of 2,100–2,600 meters per second (Mach 6.2 – Mach 7.6) and can reach an altitude of 50 kilometers and has a range of up to 500 kilometers.

The most fearsome weapon in the Russian arsenal, though, is the doomsday intercontinental ballistic missile named The Sarmat and colloquially referred to as Satan II with an operational range of 18,000 km., and capable of carrying 16 thermonuclear multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads.

At the height of the Cold War in the sixties, Russia exploded the world’s largest 50-megaton thermonuclear Tsar Bomba in October 1961. A Tupolev Tu-95V aircraft took off with the bomb weighing 27 tons. The bomb was attached to a large parachute, which gave the release and observer planes time to fly about 45 km away from ground zero, giving them a 50 percent chance of survival.

The bomb was released from a height of 10,500 meters on a test target at Sukhoy Nos cape in the Barents Sea. The bomb detonated at the height of 4,200 meters above ground. Still, the shock wave caught up with the Tu-95V at a distance of 115 km and the Tu-16 at 205 km. The Tu-95V dropped 1 kilometer in the air because of the shock wave but was able to recover and land safely.

The 8-km-wide fireball reached nearly as high as the altitude of the release plane and was visible at almost 1,000 km away. The mushroom cloud was about 67 km high. A seismic wave in the earth’s crust, generated by the shock wave of the explosion, circled the globe three times. Glass shattered in windows 780 km from the explosion in a village on Dikson Island.

All buildings in the village of Severny, both wooden and brick, located 55 km from ground zero within the Sukhoy Nos test range, were destroyed. In districts hundreds of kilometers from ground zero, wooden houses were destroyed, stone ones lost their roofs, windows, and doors. Atmospheric focusing caused blast damage at even greater distances, breaking windows in Norway and Finland.

Notwithstanding, in the heyday of the Cold War in the sixties when 400,000 US forces were deployed in Europe that were still outnumbered by Soviet troops, the Soviet leadership made repeated requests for signing a “no first use” nuclear treaty precluding the likelihood of pre-emptive nuclear strike, but the United States balked at the proposal due to conventional warfare superiority of the USSR in Europe.

Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev even unilaterally pledged against the first use of nuclear weapons in 1982, though Russia has since dropped the pledge in 1993 following the break-up of the Soviet Union and consequent tilting of balance of power in favor of the United States.

After European powers developed their own military capacity following the devastation of the Second World War, NATO now holds conventional warfare superiority over Russia with a significantly larger number of ground troops and combat aircraft.

NATO’s central rationale in engaging Russia in a protracted war of attrition in Ukraine since the Maidan coup toppling Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 is to sufficiently degrade Russia’s conventional warfare capabilities in order to coerce Kremlin to abandon its formidable nuclear arsenal in return for economic inducements, as the transatlantic military alliance did to several East European client states following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the nineties by incorporating them into NATO and the European Union, in order to claim the crown of being world’s sole super power, worshipped by all and accountable to none.

Despite comparable nuclear deterrence, as succinctly explained in the foregoing paragraphs, NATO clearly has an advantage over Russia in terms of conventional warfare capabilities. Because defense production industries of heavily industrialized NATO member states, including the US, Britain, France, Germany and even Turkey, can produce infinite quantities of armaments and ammunition over the years, which would be donated free of cost to Ukrainian proxy, whereas Russia’s military-industrial complex obviously has limited capacity, particularly after exclusion of Russia from international financial system and the imposition of economic sanctions by neocolonial powers.

In addition to state-of-the-art weapons arsenal, manpower would also play a significant role in Ukraine’s protracted war of attrition. It’s noteworthy that Ukraine is simply the name of the battlefield, while the war is actually being fought between Russia, on the one hand, and NATO military alliance, on the other.

Western regimes treat Ukraine’s largely conscript army as merely cannon fodder. Besides, thousands of mercenaries on NATO’s payroll, particularly from Poland, Georgia and rest of impoverished East European states, have also been fighting for Ukraine for the last two years. Whereas Russian armed forces are comprised of citizens whose lives matter not only to their families but also to Russian state.

For these reasons, Machiavellian military strategists of NATO are resorting to nuclear brinkmanship. The US military brass, leading NATO’s integrated military command, would keep providing abundant quantities of conventional armaments to Ukrainian troops not only to battle Russian forces in Donbas but also to target Russia’s border regions, such as Kursk and Belgorod, while keeping the intensity of hostilities below the threshold where Russia might consider mounting a direct attack at NATO territory or deploying strategic nuclear weapons as a method of last resort.

Despite feigned rhetoric of pacifism and ostensibly being a “defensive alliance,” NATO has adopted a suicidally perilous and aggressive course in the Ukraine War. Because operational miscalculations could lead to the nightmare scenario of a nuclear war, which would be catastrophic not only for belligerents but for the rest of the world too.

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