Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in August 2011 to
April 2013, the Islamic State and al-Nusra Front were a single organization
that chose the banner of “Jabhat al-Nusra.” Although the current al-Nusra Front
has been led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani but he was appointed [1] as the emir of
al-Nusra Front by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the leader of Islamic State, in January
2012.
Thus, al-Julani’s Nusra Front is only a splinter group of
the Islamic State, which split from its parent organization in April 2013 over
a leadership dispute between the two organizations.
In March 2011, protests began in Syria against the
government of Bashar al-Assad. In the following months, violence between
demonstrators and security forces led to a gradual militarization of the
conflict. In August 2011, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was based in Iraq, began
sending Syrian and Iraqi jihadists experienced in guerilla warfare across the
border into Syria to establish an organization inside the country.
Led by a Syrian known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the group
began to recruit fighters and establish cells throughout the country. On 23
January 2012, the group announced its formation as Jabhat al-Nusra.
In April 2013, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi released an audio
statement in which he announced that al-Nusra Front had been established,
financed and supported by the Islamic State of Iraq. Al-Baghdadi declared that
the two groups were merging under the name "Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria.” The leader of al-Nusra Front, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, issued a
statement denying the merger and complaining that neither he nor anyone else in
al-Nusra's leadership had been consulted about it.
Al-Qaeda Central’s leader, Ayman al Zawahiri, tried to
mediate the dispute between al-Baghdadi and al-Julani but eventually, in
October 2013, he endorsed al-Nusra Front as the official franchise of al-Qaeda
Central in Syria. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, however, defied the nominal authority
of al-Qaeda Central and declared himself as the caliph of Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria.
Keeping this background in mind, it becomes amply clear that
a single militant organization operated in Syria and Iraq under the leadership
of al-Baghdadi until April 2013, which chose the banner of al-Nusra Front, and
that the current emir of the subsequent breakaway faction of al-Nusra Front,
al-Julani, was actually al-Baghdadi’s deputy in Syria.
Thus, the Islamic State operated in Syria since August 2011
under the designation of al-Nusra Front and it subsequently changed its name to
the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in April 2013, after which it
overran Raqqa and parts of Deir al-Zor in the summer of 2013. And in January
2014, it overran Fallujah and parts of Ramadi in Iraq and reached the zenith of
its power when it captured Mosul in June 2014.
The Baathist Command
Structure:
Excluding al-Baghdadi and a handful of his hardline Islamist
aides, the rest of Islamic State’s top leadership is comprised of Saddam era
military and intelligence officials. According to an informative Associated
Press report [2], hundreds of ex-Baathists constitute the top and mid-tier
command structure of the Islamic State who plan all the operations and direct
its military strategy.
Although al-Baghdadi has not publicly appointed a successor,
but two of the closest aides who have emerged as his likely successors over the
years are Iyad al-Obaidi, his defense minister, and Ayad al-Jumaili, the in
charge of security. The latter had already reportedly been killed in an
airstrike in April in al-Qaim region on Iraq’s border with Syria.
Therefore, the most likely successor of al-Baghdadi would be
al-Obaidi. Both al-Jumaili and al-Obaidi had previously served as security
officers in Iraq’s Baathist army under Saddam Hussein, and al-Obaidi is known
to be the de facto deputy of al-Baghdadi.
More to the point, it is an indisputable fact that morale
and ideology play an important role in battle, and well informed readers must
also be aware that the Takfiri brand of most jihadists these days has directly
been inspired by the puritanical Wahhabi-Salafi ideology of Saudi Arabia, but
ideology alone is not sufficient to succeed in battle.
Looking at the Islamic State’s astounding gains in Syria and
Iraq in 2013-14, a question arises that where does its recruits get all the
training and state-of-the-art weapons that are imperative not only for
hit-and-run guerrilla warfare but also for capturing and holding large swathes
of territory?
The Syria experts of foreign policy think tanks also
appeared quite “worried” when the Islamic State overran Mosul that where did
the Islamic State’s jihadists get all the sophisticated weapons and especially
those fancy Toyota pickup trucks mounted with machine guns at the back,
colloquially known as “the Technicals” amongst the jihadists?
According to a revelatory December 2013 news
report [3] from a newspaper affiliated with the UAE government which
supports the Syrian opposition, it is clearly mentioned that along with AK-47s,
RPGs and other military gear, the Saudi regime also provides machine
gun-mounted Toyota pick-up trucks to every batch of five jihadists who have
completed their training in the training camps located at the border regions of
Jordan.
Once those militants cross over to Daraa and Quneitra in
southern Syria from the Jordan-Syria border, then those Toyota pickup trucks can
easily travel all the way to Raqqa and Deir al-Zor and thence to Mosul and
Anbar in Iraq.
Moreover, it is clearly spelled out in the report that
Syrian militants get arms and training through a secret command center known as
the Military Operations Center (MOC) based in the intelligence headquarters’
building in Amman, Jordan that has been staffed by high-ranking military
officials from 14 countries, including the US, European nations, Israel and the
Gulf Arab States to wage a covert war against the government in Syria.
Notwithstanding, in order to simplify the Syrian theater of
proxy wars, it can be divided into three separate and distinct zones: that are,
the Syrian government-controlled areas, the regions administered by the Syrian
Kurds and the areas that have been occupied by the Syrian opposition.
Excluding Idlib Governorate which has been occupied by the
Syrian opposition, all the major population centers along the western
Mediterranean coast are controlled by the Syrian government: that include,
Damascus, Homs, Hamah, Latakia and Aleppo, while the oil-rich Deir al-Zor has
been contested between the regime and the Islamic State.
The regions that are administered by the Syrian Kurds
include Qamishli and al-Hasakah in northeastern Syria, Kobani along the Turkish
border and a canton in northwestern Syria, Afrin.
Excluding the western Mediterranean coast and the adjoining
major urban centers controlled by the Syrian government and the
Kurdish-controlled areas in the north of Syria along the borders with Iraq and
Turkey, the Syrian opposition-controlled areas can be further subdivided into
three separate zones of influence:
Firstly, the northern and northwestern zone along the
Syria-Turkey border, in and around Aleppo and Idlib, which is under the influence
of Turkey and Qatar. Both these countries share the ideology of Muslim
Brotherhood and provide money, training and arms to Sunni Arab militant
organizations, such as al-Tawhid Brigade, Zenki Brigade and Ahrar al-Sham in
the training camps located in the border regions of Turkey in collaboration
with CIA’s MOM (a Turkish acronym for military operations center).
Secondly, the southern zone of influence along the
Syria-Jordan border, in Daraa and Quneitra and as far away as Homs and
Damascus. It is controlled by the Salafist Saudi-Jordanian camp and they
provide money, weapons and training to the Salafi-Wahhabi militant groups, such
as al-Nusra Front and the Southern Front of the so-called “moderate” Free Syria
Army (FSA) in Daraa and Quneitra, and Jaysh al-Islam in the suburbs of
Damascus. Their military strategy is directed by a Military Operations Center
(MOC) and training camps located in the border regions of Jordan, as I have
already described.
Here, let me clarify that this distinction is overlapping
and heuristic, at best, because al-Nusra’s jihadists have taken part in battles
as far away as Idlib and Aleppo, and pockets of opposition-held areas can be
found even in the regime-controlled cities, including in the capital, Damascus.
And thirdly, the eastern zone of influence along the
Syria-Iraq border, in Raqqa and Deir al-Zor, which has been controlled by a
relatively maverick Iraq-based jihadist outfit, the Islamic State, though it
had received funding and weapons from Turkey and the Gulf Arab States before it
turned rogue and overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq in early 2014.
Thus, leaving the Mediterranean coast and Syria’s border
with Lebanon, the Baathist and Shi’a-dominated Syrian regime has been
surrounded from all three sides by hostile Sunni forces: Turkey and Muslim
Brotherhood in the north, Jordan and the Salafists of the Gulf Arab States in
the south and the Sunni Arab-majority regions of Mosul and Anbar in Iraq in the
east.
The Sectarian, anti-Shi’a
Ideology:
According to reports, Syria's pro-Assad militias are
comprised of local militiamen as well as Shi’a foreign fighters from Lebanon,
Iraq, Iran and even the Hazara Shi’as from as far away as Afghanistan and
Pakistan. And similarly, Sunni jihadists from all over the region have also
been flocking to the Syrian battlefield for the last seven years. A full-scale
Sunni-Shi’a war has been going on in Syria, Iraq and Yemen which will obviously
have its repercussions all over the Islamic World where Sunni and Shi’a Muslims
have coexisted in relative peace for centuries.
Moreover, unlike al Qaeda which is a terrorist organization
that generally employs anticolonial and anti-Zionist rhetoric to draw funds and
followers, the Islamic State and the majority of Sunni Arab militant groups in
Syria are basically anti-Shi’a sectarian outfits. By the designation “terrorism,”
it is generally implied and understood that an organization which has the
intentions and capability of carrying out acts of terrorism on the Western
soil.
Although the Islamic State has carried out a few acts of
terrorism against the Western countries, but if we look at the pattern of its
subversive activities, especially in the Middle East, it generally targets the
Shi’a Muslims in Syria and Iraq. A few acts of terrorism that it has carried
out in the Gulf Arab states were also directed against the Shi’a Muslims in the
Eastern province of Saudi Arabia and Shi’a mosques in Yemen and Kuwait.
Regarding the Syrian opposition, a small fraction of it has
been comprised of defected Syrian soldiers who go by the name of Free Syria
Army, but the vast majority has been comprised of Sunni Arab jihadists and
armed tribesmen who have been generously funded, trained, armed and
internationally legitimized by their regional and international patrons.
The Islamic State is nothing more than one of numerous
Syrian militant outfits, others being: al Nusra Front, Ahrar al-Sham, al-Tawhid
brigade, Jaysh al Islam etc. All the Sunni Arab militant groups that are
operating in Syria are just as fanatical and brutal as the Islamic State. The
only feature that differentiates the Islamic State from the rest is that it is
more ideological and independent-minded.
The reason why the US has turned against the Islamic State
is that all other Syrian militant outfits only have local ambitions that are
limited to fighting the Assad regime in Syria, while the Islamic State has
established a global network of transnational terrorists that includes hundreds
of Western citizens who have become a national security risk to the Western
countries.
More to the point, since the beginning of the Syrian civil
war in August 2011 to June 2014 when the Islamic State overran Mosul and Anbar
in Iraq, an informal pact existed between the Western powers, their regional
allies and the Sunni militants of the Middle East against the Shi’a Iranian
axis comprised of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Iran’s Lebanon-based proxy, Hezbollah.
In accordance with the pact, Sunni militants were trained and armed in the
training camps located in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan to battle the
Shi’a-dominated Syrian government.
This arrangement of an informal pact between the Western
powers and the Sunni jihadists of the Middle East against the Shi’a Iranian
axis worked well up to August 2014 when the Obama Administration made a
volte-face on its previous regime change policy in Syria and began conducting
air strikes against one group of Sunni militants battling the Syrian
government, the Islamic State, after the latter overstepped its mandate in
Syria and overran Mosul and Anbar in Iraq, from where, the US troops had
withdrawn only a couple of years ago in December 2011.
After this reversal of policy in Syria by the Western powers
and the subsequent Russian military intervention on the side of the Syrian
government in September 2015, the momentum of Sunni militants’ expansion in
Syria and Iraq has stalled, and they now feel that their Western patrons have
committed a treachery against the Sunni jihadists’ cause, that’s why they are infuriated
and once again up in arms to exact revenge for this betrayal.
If we look at the chain of events, the timing of the recent
spate of terror attacks against the European targets has been critical: the
Islamic State overran Mosul in June 2014, the Obama Administration began
conducting air strikes against the Islamic State’s targets in Iraq and Syria in
August 2014, and after a lull of almost a decade since the Madrid and London
bombings in 2004 and 2005, respectively, the first such incident of terrorism
took place on the Western soil at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in January 2015,
and then the Islamic State carried out the audacious November 2015 Paris
attacks and the March 2016 Brussels bombings, and this year, three horrific
terror attacks have taken place in the United Kingdom within a span of less
than three months.
Conclusion:
A number of Islamic State affiliates have recently sprung up
all over the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia regions that have no
organizational and operational association, whatsoever, with the Islamic State
proper in Syria and Iraq, such as the Islamic State affiliates in Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Libya and even Boko Haram in Nigeria now falls under the rubric of
the Islamic State.
It is understandable for laymen to conflate such local
militant outfits for the Islamic State proper, but how come the policy analysts
of think tanks and the corporate media’s terrorism experts, who are fully aware
of this not-so-subtle distinction, have fallen for such a ruse?
Can we classify any ragtag militant outfit as the Islamic
State merely on the basis of ideological affinity and “a letter of accreditation”
from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi without the Islamic State’s Baathist command
structure and superior weaponry that has been bankrolled by the Gulf’s
petro-dollars?
The Western political establishments and their mouthpiece,
the mainstream media, deliberately and knowingly fall for such stratagems
because it serves the scaremongering agenda of vested interests. Before
acknowledging the Islamic State’s affiliates in the region, the Western
mainstream media also similarly and “naively” acknowledged al Qaeda’s
affiliates in the region, too, merely on the basis of ideological affinity
without any organizational and operational association with al Qaeda Central,
such as al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in Iraq and al Qaeda in Islamic
Maghreb.
Recently, the Islamic State’s purported “terror franchises”
in Afghanistan and Pakistan have claimed several terror attacks against the
Shi’a and Barelvi Muslims who are regarded as heretics by Takfiris. But to
contend that the Islamic State is responsible for suicide blasts in Pakistan
and Afghanistan is to declare that the Taliban are responsible for anarchy and
militancy in Syria and Iraq.
Both are localized militant outfits and any purported
affiliate of the Islamic State without its Baathist command structure and
superior weaponry would be just another ragtag, local militant outfit. The
distinction between the Taliban and the Islamic State lies in the fact that the
Taliban follow Deobandi sect of Sunni Islam which is native to South Asia and
the jihadists of the Islamic State mostly belong to the Wahhabi denomination.
Secondly, and more importantly, the insurgency in the border
regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan is a Pashtun uprising which is an ethnic
group native to Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, while the bulk of the
Islamic State’s jihadists is comprised of Arab militants of Syria and Iraq. Conflating
the Islamic State either with al-Qaeda or with a breakaway faction of the
Taliban is a deliberate deception intended to mislead public opinion in order
to exaggerate the security threat posed by the Islamic State.