Alaska Summit: There is no Deal until there is a Deal

After the historic Alaska summit on August 15, harking back to Cold War-era meet-ups between Soviet and American leaders, Ukraine is getting coveted non-NATO collective security guarantees from US and European powers. What more could Mr. Zelensky conceivably ask for. It never was a question of winning territory, as Mr. Trump wisely pointed out, because advancing Russian troops would conquer the remaining tiny sliver of Donetsk one way or the other.

It’s noteworthy that in early days of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, in Feb-March 2022, Russia not only captured most of Donbas but its troops also reached the outskirts of capital Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv, before withdrawing back after the commencement of Istanbul peace initiative by end March 2022. Thus it never was a question of winning territory, as Russian forces have demonstrable capability to occupy entire Ukraine, and the casus bellum of the war was to liberate Russian-majority Donbas from onslaught of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi terrorist groups following the Maidan coup in 2014.

Moreover, Mr. Trump’s heir apparent Veep JD Vance, who certainly has the charisma and ideological underpinnings to carry forward Mr. Trump’s political legacy, has astutely warned the Europeans that US was done funding the war. Now it’s up to Europeans to collects alms and provide billions of dollars of military assistance to Ukraine’s perpetually hungry military brass.

Biden admin’s needless, forever war has already cost trillions of dollars to American taxpayers. Hundreds of billions of dollars were spent only on providing weapons to Ukrainian proxies and deploying and maintaining additional US troops and military assets for over three years in Eastern Europe. But the indirect opportunity cost of the war runs into trillions. Russian oil, gas and rest of exports were excluded from global economy for over three years. In addition, Western multinational corporations had to wrap up their lucrative businesses and leave the Russian market immediately after the onset of the war. Quite a few such companies in fact became bankrupt after losing business in Russia.

Notwithstanding, momentum of the epic battle for Donbas is unmistakably in Russia’s favor. Intrepid Russian warriors are currently scaling the fortifications of strategic town of Pokrovsk. Once the town is captured, the remainder of Donetsk will fall in Russia’s lap like ripe fruit. Therefore halting the ground offensive was never an option, although Mr. Putin did propose freezing the frontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhia during the negotiations.

Before the Alaska summit, however, a partial ceasefire was discussed in which Russia and Ukraine could’ve halted airstrikes against each other. But the Pentagon vetoed that proposition on Ukraine’s behalf, because a limited ceasefire would’ve favored Russia. Since the foiled Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, Ukrainian troops have been retreating on the ground in the face of Russia’s fierce assault in Donbas.

Hence Ukraine’s only option is to mount occasional drone strikes inside Russia to give it a sense that it’s still in the game, and thus keep receiving billions of dollars in assistance from American and European patrons on that pretext. It’d be prudent of Mr. Zelensky to read the clearly visible writing on the wall and agree to generous peace terms offered by Trump admin. Because Ukraine is a pygmy caught in the fight between two giants, and it could become a flashpoint for the doomsday scenario that could spell end to humanity.

Besides Obama admin’s purported “humanitarian intervention” in Libya in 2011 causing nothing but chaos and destruction all over the hapless country still being run by two parallel gov’ts, Biden admin’s proxy war in Ukraine was another instance of liberal interventionism. This was the central rationale all the Europeans libs gathered around Mr. Zelensky to lend moral support in tough negotiations with conservative Team Trump on August 18.

Throughout American history, from FDR and Truman down to Obama and Biden, Democratic administrations have fought many more wars than Republicans, though slick libs often shrewdly qualify warmongering with benign epithets, such as necessary, justifiable and defensive.

Military strategists, not only of Russia but the rest of the world too, are at a loss to fathom Mr. Zelensky’s military objectives in insisting on still waging the lost war. Ukraine can certainly not win back territory, as is evident from the foiled Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023. It can’t even defend territory, as is obvious from Russian blitz in Donetsk and Luhansk during last several months.

Thus it appears the only reason Mr. Zelensky is refusing reasonable peace terms proposed by Russia and endorsed by United States is to keep receiving billions of dollars in assistance from American and European patrons on the pretext of waging war against Russia. War is indeed a profitable business, not only for military-industrial complex but also for greedy Ukrainian oligarchs thriving on American and European taxpayers’ money.

Unsurprisingly behind the back of Mr. Trump, Commander EUCOM Gen. Alexus the Grynch has essentially fallen back to Keith Kellogg’s Ukraine peace plan, a retired general representing deep state logic. Mr. Kellogg has no place in Trump admin. He has already been effectively replaced by Mr. Trump’s close confidant Mr. Witkoff as de facto special envoy for Ukraine, who should be credited for arranging the historic Alaska summit.

Mr. Kellogg was playing the role of a spoiler in peace negotiations and his nefarious plan has unequivocally been rejected not only by Russia but by Trump admin itself. It’d be prudent of Mr. Trump to avoid distractions of domestic politics for a while and pay more attention to Ukraine peace process that will be the defining moment of Trump presidency for all times to come.

Although Mr. Putin graciously accepted the proposal of non-NATO collective security guarantees for Ukraine at the Alaska summit, the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine right next to Russia’s western borders is a redline for Kremlin. What the Russian delegation understood by “collective security guarantees for Ukraine” was that Ukraine could have NATO’s Article 5-style collective defense treaties with European states that they could provide military support to Ukraine if it is invaded by a hostile power.

Ukraine has a capable and organized military force that has quite effectively been defending the country in the Russo-Ukraine War for over three years. It’s not some backward African country needing peacekeeping force for maintaining law and order. Therefore it doesn’t need the deployment of foreign mercenaries on its soil, particularly wimpy European draft dodgers and malingerers reporting sick all the time while facing baptism of fire. There’s many a slip between the cup and the lip, therefore Mr. Trump should keep spoilers at bay and lead peace negotiations himself.